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Trump Bump

Trump Bump

  • Dismal ratings for cable TV networks have dispelled hopes of a “Trump bump” for viewership during the lead-up to the 2024 election

  • Many cable TV networks anticipate a surge in ratings every four years ahead of presidential elections

  • That was especially true during the 2016 and 2020 elections, when cable TV networks witnessed larger-than-expected rating hikes that they coined the “Trump bump”

  • In 2016, CBS’s chairman said the Trump bump “may not be good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS”

  • This year, though, the Trump bump has failed to materialize

  • During coverage of the 2020 Iowa Caucus, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox – the US’ three largest cable news channels – drew 2.5M, 1.8M, and 4.4M viewers, respectively

  • Those figures were in turn down 17% from 2016 Iowa caucus viewership

  • For this year’s event, CNN attracted 688,000 viewers (down 72% from 2020), MSNBC 1.15M (down 36%), and Fox 2.8M (down 36%)

  • For comparison, an NFL playoff game airing at the same time attracted 28.62M viewers

  • The same trend held true for Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary: 6M viewers tuned into Fox, CNN, and MSNBC between 8 PM and 11 PM, down from 8.6M in 2020 and 8.7M in 2016

  • During an interview last week, the CEO of The Washington Post (WaPo) cast doubt that this election cycle will boost news consumption

  • “I’m not convinced that will be the case,” he said

  • Visits to WaPo’s website fell from 161M in December 2019 to 116M last December, a 28% drop

  • Some analysts attribute the decline to the unpopularity of both major candidates and the growing likelihood that the 2024 election will be a rematch of 2020

  • One senior cable executive told the Financial Times there is “a high degree of fatigue” among viewers over both candidates

  • Others attribute the decline to people consuming their news from alternative, non-cable sources

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