A Christmas Eve massacre of 160+ Nigerians has drawn attention to an escalating conflict in Africa’s most populous country

With 213M people, Nigeria is Africa’s most populous and the world’s sixth-most populous country. It also has Africa’s largest economy

Between fluctuating oil prices, economic mismanagement, corruption, and poor infrastructure and education, 40%+ of Nigerians live in poverty and nearly half still work in agriculture

Nigeria is divided between 371 recognized ethnic groups and almost equally between Muslims and Christians

Between those divisions, Nigeria’s economic situation, and weak governance, violence has plagued the country for decades

Since 2009, Nigeria has fought a war against Boko Haram, a fundamentalist Islamist group based in northeastern Nigeria

That conflict has claimed thousands of lives, cost the Nigerian government billions of dollars, and spilled over into neighboring countries

Yet an even deadlier – but much less covered – conflict has been simultaneously raging in central Nigeria

Nigeria’s Muslim north and Christian south meet in the Middle Belt, a region that spans the width of the country

Also home to Nigeria’s capital city, Abuja, the Middle Belt is known for its extreme diversity

Across Africa, a recurring source of violence is the collision between two different ways of life: Farming and herding

Farmers rely on strong land rights and stable access to resources, while herders often lead semi-nomadic lifestyles that require access to fresh pastures

Exacerbated by ethnic and religious differences, clashes between herders and farmers over land are relatively common

Such a conflict has been ongoing in Nigeria’s Middle Belt

Persistent droughts in northern Nigeria have decreased the availability of grazing land there, driving many herders to seek new land in the Middle Belt

The predominantly Muslim herders have long complained that Nigeria’s laws favor (Christian) farmers over (Muslim) herders

Since 2011, some herders have formed militias to settle the matter themselves

The militiamen – referred to in Nigeria as “bandits” – have for years attacked Christian farming villages with guns and explosives

They operate mostly at night or early morning, striking villages and then dispersing before Nigeria’s security forces can respond

Although official statistics are rare, in 2018, the International Crisis Group claimed 1,300 Nigerians had died in the conflict over the first half of that year

In 2021, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project claimed 2,600 had died that year

Many accuse Nigeria’s government of inadequately responding to the violence

Survivors have recounted stories of waiting hours or days for security forces to respond to a massacre

Nigeria’s new president was elected earlier this year in part on a pledge to change that

Yet on Christmas Eve, “bandits” – suspected to be Muslim herders – attacked “not fewer than 20” villages in the Middle Belt

Armed with machine guns and explosives, they killed 160+ people, nearly all Christians

“I am yet to take stock of [the deaths]” a governor said at the time. “It has been a very terrifying Christmas”

President Tinubu pledged to “scour every stretch of the zone” to “apprehend” the culprits, yet survivors claimed the government took hours to respond and rights groups blasted Nigeria’s government for failing to implement real solutions

The conflict is already undermining the government’s legitimacy and exacerbating religious tensions in the country

Will Nigeria stop the bandits, or is more violence brewing in Africa’s most populous country?

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